Despite recent airstrikes, Iran’s nuclear future remains uncertain, says IAEA Director General.
Days after US and Israeli airstrikes hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, the chief of the UN nuclear watchdog warned Iran may resume uranium enrichment within a few months. Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), explained in an appearance on Face the Nation that although the strikes caused damage to significant locations, Iran’s nuclear program is still in place; it has simply been interrupted.
While Iran might not recover in a few weeks, Grossi said, it would probably be able to restart a few centrifuge cascades in a matter of months. Despite the physical harm done to important facilities like Natanz and Fordow, he noted that the nation still possessed the infrastructure, technical know-how, and capacity to resume enrichment.
Before the strikes, Iran had about 408 kilogrammes of uranium that was enriched to 60 per cent, which is just short of weapons-grade, he added. As of right now, nevertheless, the IAEA lacked assurance regarding the fate of that material. “Without access to the sites, the agency was unable to ascertain whether the uranium was moved elsewhere or destroyed in the attacks,” Grossi said. Only on-site inspections could give clear answers.
However, Grossi says, inspections aren’t taking place at the moment and that on-the-ground inspections are the only way to truly know what Iran still has and whether it’s rebuilding. Following the attacks, Iran denied the IAEA access to numerous nuclear sites. The agency is essentially in the dark about what Iran still has and is doing because it cannot travel there to confirm what is left.
However, the U.S. government is presenting a different picture. Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated” by the strikes, according to President Trump, who also threatened to launch another attack if Iran resumed enrichment.
Still, Grossi’s warning presents a more cautious image. The strikes haven’t completely stopped Iran, but they have slowed it considerably. The real threat, he implied, is that without inspections and diplomacy, Iran could quietly rebuild its program, and no one would know until it’s too late.
Aside from the nuclear program, the diplomatic position is extremely delicate. The primary means of containing Iran’s nuclear aspirations for many years has been inspections and discussions. These discussions are essential for fostering trust, exchanging information, and avoiding misconceptions that can spark conflict; they are not only political discourse. Inspections allow the international community to see Iran’s activities and confirm that it is not covertly developing weapons.
However, that entire structure is falling apart because Iran is preventing inspections from entering, and there are no ongoing conversations. Countries lack trustworthy information regarding Iran’s nuclear activities in the absence of transparency. The longer this situation persists, the harder it will be to resume negotiations or come up with a diplomatic solution. In other words, the situation may be becoming more uncertain as the window for diplomacy may be closing.
